How much crude is lacking?

French officials recently estimated that the global market is missing about 10 million barrels of crude oil per day.

It is a considerable amount given the global economy had been consuming on the order of 105 million barrels per day before the Middle East conflict broke out.

Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz shut in around 20 million barrels per day initially, but Saudi Arabia shifted some exports to the Red Sea, and some tankers resumed transits.

Saudi exports via the Red Sea are now down as Yemen’s Houthi rebels have gained control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The shock on global markets has been attenuated because nations had ample commercial and strategic reserves, as production had outstripped consumption in 2025.

Meanwhile, consumption has dropped by more than one million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), with China in particular sharply reducing crude imports and shifting to other energy sources.

The IEA estimates that what it calls observed global oil stocks are now down by around 507 million barrels from before the war. This figure does not include countries like China that do not report data on their reserves.

What’s the problem with diesel?

Diesel prices have been setting fresh records in both Europe and the United States.

It is at a record average of $6.52 per gallon in the United States, according to the AAA automobile association, In France, it hit a record average of 2.41 euros per liter (around $10.40 a gallon) on Sunday, according to an AFP analysis.

“The current world energy crisis, then, is largely a crisis in petroleum products, refined from crude oil, rather than in petroleum itself,” Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in a recent post. “And its proximate cause is a global shortage of refining capacity.”

Western nations have banned the import of Russian petroleum products, and Russia has also introduced fuel export bans as Ukrainian attacks have damaged its refineries. That has left Russia’s remaining buyers scrambling for supplies, pushing up prices.

Gulf nations are also big exporters of refined petroleum products, and Iranians have targeted refineries in the region. That means that even if transit through the Strait of Hormuz were to resume immediately, the diesel market would remain tight for some time.

“Diesel prices have risen across all regions because the disruption is global, but Europe is particularly exposed,” as it is a net importer of the fuel, said Janiv Shah, vice president at the consultancy Rystad Energy.

What options?

There are few short-term options.

“Technically, there is some unused capacity on paper, but very little that can be activated quickly and supplied with the right crude,” Shah said.

A resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would likely be the quickest way to bring down prices, he said, as it would allow Asian refineries to be supplied.

Toril Bosoni, head of the International Energy Agency’s oil industry and markets division, warned last week that “if Gulf supplies remain constrained in the coming months and commercial inventory buffers continue to deplete rapidly, higher prices and further demand reductions may be required to close the supply-demand gap”.

Rystad’s Shah said that rising prices would help reduce diesel consumption, but that the impact would be limited.

“Diesel demand is relatively insensitive in the short term because trucking, agriculture, construction and industry have few immediate alternatives,” he told AFP.

Sindh High Court’s Justice Omar Sial, who heads the one-member commission, observed that Sheikh had “appeared on social media” and said that he had “more to tell the commission than what he told it earlier”, according to the order released after the latest hearing.

“Upon a query as to whether he wanted to say that the death of Mir Raza was a suicide and not a murder, he said that is not what he wanted to say. He clarified that it was not a suicide. He wanted to justify his finding that the bullet came from the front,” the order, a copy of which is available with Dawn, said.

There has been a controversy over Ali’s autopsy in the case, with Karachi Police Surgeon Dr Summaiyya Syed pointing out flaws in the first postmortem findings. Following that, Ali’s body was exhumed and a second post-mortem was conducted. Its findings concluded that the 25-year-old was shot in the back and ruled out the possibility of a suicide.

Dr Syed also told the commission at a previous hearing that she faced “threats” after disputing the findings of the first postmortem.

In his order on Monday, Justice Sial stated, “I also sense from the questions I asked of him (Sheikh) that his sole purpose in recording a further statement is to throw mud at the police surgeon and the worthy chief minister. I will not allow either. The Commission is not a forum for mud-slinging.”

The order added that the terms of reference of the commission required it determine the true facts and circumstances of the case and to attribute negligence.

“I have enough information for that. The commission has its own mind to determine what has transpired. Therefore, I decline Dr Osama Sheikh’s request,” Justice Sial added.

During his previous appearance before the commission on Sept 1, Sheikh had told the judicial commission that he was not under any influence or pressure while conducting the postmortem and had nowhere stated in his report that Ali had died by suicide.

For its part, the commission had expressed dissatisfaction with Sheikh’s answers, questioned the discrepancies between his initial and final reports and asked whether he or a sweeper had conducted the autopsy.

Sheikh had maintained that he had conducted the procedure and that the final report was issued after the exhumation and second autopsy, following 14 objections by the police surgeon.

He had added that he had declined to provide information when called to the chief minister’s house on Aug 9 in the absence of relevant documents, while the second investigation team recorded his statement on Aug 17.

The case’s investigation team was changed following objections raised by Ali’s family.

On Friday, the judicial commission had deplored that the first investigating officer of the case had hardly made any effort to probe the matter and did not fulfil legal formalities during the investigation.

The case so far

Ali’s body was found a day after he went missing on July 28. Since then, the case has been mired in controversy, with the deceased’s family accusing the police of trying to bury the facts while the investigators initially attempted to build the case around the possibility of a suicide.

Days after the recovery of Ali’s body on July 29, Karachi Police Surgeon Dr Summaiya Syed had told Geo News that the post-mortem findings in the case had raised several questions, as some observations in the report did not appear to match the available photographs.

On August 6, a Karachi court took up an application by Ali’s father, allowed the exhumation of his body, ordered the formation of a medico-legal board for the purpose and directed that a second autopsy of Ali’s body be conducted.

The Sindh health department then constituted an eight-member board, with police surgeon Dr Syed as the convener. However, in the early hours of August 7, the board was reconstituted through an order issued by the director general of the Sindh health department.

While Dr Syed remained the convener of the new five-member board, its members were changed.

But Ali’s family rejected the new board, which also resulted in the deferment of the planned exhumation on Friday. Meanwhile, the counsel for Ali’s family, Nasir, accused the authorities of trying to bury the facts.

The Sindh government then restored the original medical board, following which Ali’s body was exhumed on August 8.

A day later, the Sindh inspector general of police’s (IG) office notified the reconstitution of the investigating team probing Ali’s death, while Karachi Additional IG Azad Khan transferred the investigation into Ali’s murder to Zaman Town police station from Ferozabad Police Station, where the case was registered under charges of kidnapping.

The order for the probe team’s reconstitution also showed that a murder charge had been added to the first information report.

The same day, the Sindh government decided to seek a judicial commission for the case’s investigation, only to defer the plan a day later after Ali’s family said they had made no such demand and had faith in the new investigation team.

On Aug 19, Ali’s parents, Mir Hussain and Mariam Hussain, wrote to Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, seeking his “direct supervision of the murder investigation”. They also urged the chief minister to order an investigation and departmental inquiry into the previous investigation team and immediately suspend the officers involved.

The provincial government acknowledged the letter and announced the decision on Aug 23 to form a judicial commission to determine whether the investigation in the case was being conducted impartially and to investigate the circumstances surrounding Ali’s death.

However, the counsel for Ali’s family approached the SHC, objecting to the provincial government’s decision to form a judicial commission and seeking the formation of an independent and multi-agency JIT “comprising officers who have had no previous involvement in the case”.

On Sept 2, the SHC dismissed that petition filed by Ali’s family, observing that constituting such a body was the “prerogative of the government”.

Meanwhile, the final report of Ali’s second post-mortem for the Mir Raza Ali murder case confirmed that his death was caused by a gunshot wound to the back.

“Death occurred due to cardiac rupture consequent to perforating firearm injury of the chest,” the report stated, adding that the entry wound was on the posterior thorax (back) and the exit wound on the anterior thorax (front of the chest).

“The findings are inconsistent with suicide as the manner of death,” it confirmed.

Iesco is among the three electricity distribution companies in Discos Batch-I, alongside Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (Fesco) and Gujranwala Electric Power Company (Gepco).

In a statement on Monday, the commission said it received expressions of interest (EOIs) from three Turkish and seven local prospective investors seeking to acquire 51 per cent to 100pc shareholding in Iesco, along with management control.

The Turkish investors are ⁠Aktor Elektrik Enerji, ⁠⁠Genvera Enerji and ⁠⁠Cengiz Enerji — all of whom had also expressed interest in Gujranwala Electric Power Company (Gepco).

The local investors include ⁠Engro Energy; a consortium comprising ⁠Artistic Milliners, The Lake City Holdings, Fatima Capital Limited, Din Ventures (Pvt) Limited and Fazal Cloth Mills Limited; along with a consortium led by Hubco Power Holding and including Lucky Cement Limited, Kohat Cement Limited and Metro Ventures (Private) Limited.

Pakistani investors also include ⁠⁠Sapphire Fibres Limited,⁠ Novatex Limited, ⁠Bestway Cement Limited and a new consortium comprising Hasnaat Brothers Construction Co. (Pvt) Limited, Dhilal Holding Group, Pak Steel, Bio-Labs (Pvt) Limited and Farid Steel Casting (Pvt) Limited.

Most of the investors have also submitted their EOIs for the privatisation of Faisalabad and Gujranwala power companies. One new investor consortium has emerged for Iesco led by Hasnaat Brothers Construction.

The Privatisation Commission welcomed the investor community’s extensive engagement during the domestic and international roadshows, as well as their confidence in Pakistan’s power-sector reform agenda.

“This is an important milestone in the privatisation of Discos. The strong response received for Iesco reflects that investors have confidence in the potential of Pakistan’s electricity distribution sector and in the Government’s commitment to a transparent, competitive and professionally managed process,” said commission head Muhammad Ali, also the adviser to the prime minister on privatisation.

The commission said it would now be engaging constructively with the prequalified investors through the due-diligence process and to seek alignment on an equitable, transparent and predictable post-privatisation regime.

It added that the process was intended to improve operational efficiency, modernise distribution infrastructure, strengthen customer service, and reduce losses to support a more financially sustainable power sector, which over time will lead to more affordable and reliable power for consumers.

The EOIs and statements of qualification (SOQs) submitted by the interested parties will now undergo a comprehensive evaluation against the approved prequalification criteria. Applicants meeting the prescribed requirements will be prequalified and invited to the next stage of the transaction, where they will be granted access to the Virtual Data Room (VDR) to undertake detailed buy-side due diligence.

Ten interested parties have been prequalified for Fesco, whereas 11 EOIs were received for Gepco, which are currently under evaluation for prequalification.

The commission said it would ensure an open, transparent and competitive privatisation process, undertaken in the public interest and in support of the government’s wider power-sector reform agenda.

Funeral prayers were offered for the brave sons of the Pakistan Army who embraced martyrdom fighting Fitna al-Khawarij terrorists.

Capt Abuzar Farooq
Lt. Shiraz Babar
Sep Shakeel Ahmed
Sep Hamza
Sep Muhammad Usman Aziz
NC- Ghulam Sajjad

May Allah grant them Jannat-ul-Firdous 🇵🇰 pic.twitter.com/6a4bvNitrm

— Zard si Gana (@ZardSi) September 21, 2026

The martyrs were identified as:

• Captain Abuzar Farooq

• Lieutenant Shiraz Babar

• Sepoy Shakeel Ahmed

• Sepoy Hamza

• Sepoy Muhammad Usman Aziz

• Naib Courier Ghulam Sajjad

The soldiers laid down their lives in the line of duty during operations against the banned Fitna al-Khawarij, the state-designated term for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliated networks operating from Afghan soil.

Funeral prayers were attended by senior military officials, fellow soldiers, family members, and local residents who gathered to pay their final respects to the fallen heroes. The coffins, draped in the green and white flag of Pakistan, were carried by fellow soldiers as mourners chanted prayers.

Nation Pays Tribute

The sacrifices of these brave soldiers were honored across the country, with citizens expressing their gratitude and sorrow for the ultimate price paid in defense of the homeland.

President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have repeatedly emphasized that the nation will never forget the sacrifices of its soldiers and that operations against terrorist networks will continue until the menace is completely eliminated.

Pakistan's Resolve

The martyrdoms come amid intensified counter-terrorism operations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan under Operation Azm-e-Istehkam and Operation Ghazab-ul-Haq. Security forces have eliminated hundreds of terrorists in recent months, dismantling hideouts, command centers, and logistical networks.

DG ISPR Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry has stated that the war against terrorism is a "war imposed on Pakistan" and that the armed forces will continue intelligence-based operations until every terrorist threat is neutralized.

May Allah Grant Them Jannat-ul-Firdous

As the nation mourns, their sacrifice stands as a testament to the courage and devotion of Pakistan's armed forces. These six brave men gave their today for our tomorrow.

May Allah grant them the highest rank in Jannat-ul-Firdous. Ameen. 🇵🇰

Afghan Woman Near Nurgal Exposes Taliban’s Civilian Casualty Claims

A local Afghan woman from near Nurgal says those present were not ordinary civilians, but Taliban-linked individuals.

Her account directly challenges Kabul’s claims of civilian casualties in the PAF strike. pic.twitter.com/Nsk8uDfjUU

— Zard si Gana (@ZardSi) September 21, 2026

The Woman's Account

According to local sources, the woman's testimony directly challenges the narrative put forward by Kabul, which has claimed that three civilians—including a woman and two men—were killed in the early morning strikes on Monday.

The Taliban's deputy spokesman, Hamdullah Fitrat, had stated that a house belonging to a villager named Noor Ahmad in Patan village of Nurgal district was completely destroyed, killing Ahmad and two family members, and wounding four others .

However, the woman's account asserts that the individuals present were not ordinary civilians but were connected to Taliban-linked elements, contradicting the official casualty claims.

Conflicting Narratives

The air strikes, conducted in the early hours of Monday, targeted what Pakistani security officials described as "terrorist hubs" along the border. According to two Pakistani security officials speaking on condition of anonymity, 28 suspected militants were killed in the strikes on Nurgal district in Kunar province and Barmal district in Paktika province .

The Taliban government rejected this figure, with spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid condemning the strikes as "aggression and oppression" and vowing an "appropriate response" .

A local farmer, Mubin Khan, who was injured in the bombardment, told AFP that three members of his family died and his three-room house and livestock were destroyed . The Taliban's account has been widely reported, while the woman's counter-testimony adds a new dimension to the contested narrative.

Context of the Strikes

The strikes followed a deadly suicide bombing and gun attack on a police compound in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on Friday, which killed at least 16 people, including police officers, and injured over 50 . A militant faction, Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, linked to the TTP, claimed responsibility .

Pakistan's Information Ministry warned on Saturday that the country could target militants inside Afghanistan in response to attacks on its soil, blaming the Kohat attack on militants based in Afghanistan and accusing the Afghan Taliban government of sheltering and supporting groups that carry out attacks in Pakistan .

Pakistan's Position

Pakistan has consistently maintained that its strikes target militant hideouts and infrastructure used by groups like the TTP and its allies, which operate from Afghan soil. The Foreign Office has emphasized that Pakistan has both the will and the capability to eliminate terrorist threats wherever they are .

The Afghan Taliban government denies harboring militants and has repeatedly accused Pakistan of targeting civilians, including women and children. The United Nations has also reported civilian casualties from previous Pakistani strikes, with UNAMA documenting at least 28 civilians killed and 49 wounded in strikes on June 28 .

The Human Cost

The conflicting accounts underscore the difficulty of verifying casualty claims in the remote border regions, where access is limited and both sides have strategic reasons to shape the narrative. The woman's testimony adds weight to Pakistan's position that the targets were Taliban-linked, while the Taliban's account continues to emphasize civilian harm.

As the strikes risk further escalation between the two neighbors, the truth of what happened in Nurgal remains contested—but the woman's account provides a rare on-the-ground challenge to Kabul's official line.