Articles by Estefano Gomez
The US-Iran conflict, marked by Iranβs blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has raised questions about the petrodollarβs future, but prediction markets show limited movement. The Crude Oil All Time H...
Goldman Sachs says global markets want resolution on US-Iran tensions. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The contract has dropped fοΏ½...
Britainβs Prime Minister Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge after local elections on May 7. The odds of him being out by December 31, 2026, currently sit at 68.5%
YES, up from 66% a da...
Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz during Pakistan-mediated talks, while nuclear deal negotiations remain at an impasse. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by MοΏ½...
US officials are set to discuss resuming bombing campaigns on Iran. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
With only six days left until the April 30 resolution, the fulοΏ½...
The EUβs energy bill has increased by $32 billion due to the Iran war, adding economic pressure across the bloc. The odds of an ECB 50+ bps interest rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sit at 0.1%
...
Whale Alert reported a 1,704 BTC transfer to Kraken and a $100 million USDT move from Binance to an unknown wallet. A possible Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April is on tradersβ radars, while the market...
US-Israeli strikes on Iranian health facilities have coincided with stalled peace talks, and the market for Iran halting uranium enrichment by April 30 has collapsed to 1.1%
YES, down from 50% a weοΏ½...
The Strait of Hormuz saw only four vessels pass through yesterday, continuing its effective closure. The market for normal traffic returning by May 15 is at 16.5%
YES, down from 20% twenty-four houοΏ½...
Oil prices have climbed above $107 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz still closed due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1%
οΏ½...
