Articles by Estefano Gomez
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for China’s 2026 GDP growth to 4.9%, while TSMC warned that higher gas prices from Middle East tensions could hit profits. The ECB interest rate market for a 50+ bp...
Iran faces major reconstruction costs after the Twelve-Day War, pushing leaders toward negotiations on sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April sits at 36.5%
�...
Trump’s ultimatum to the Fed chair injects uncertainty as Bitcoin hovers at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 is at 100%
YES.
The market for Bitcoin staying above $58,000 is priced at 10...
Russia’s latest air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17 people, pushing ceasefire odds lower. The ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now sits at 5%
YES, down from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The...
Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5%
YES.
The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5%
YES, w...
Ukraine secured fresh aid pledges for drones, air defense, and logistics at the Ramstein summit. The ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market is at 1.8%
YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
N�...
Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon are intensifying the 2026 Lebanon war, with the Polymarket contract on military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 priced at 100%
YES.
Market rea...
Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro have killed 12 people, pushing the probability of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, down to 1.8%
YES from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
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Saudi Arabia’s NEOM has launched a new trade route linking Europe to the Gulf that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices YES at a 15% expected decr...
Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9%
YES.
Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading Bitcoi�...
