Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trump announced Iranβs agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for βIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30β now sits at 44.3%
YES, up from 35% ju...
Iran denied Trumpβs suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45%
YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure.
...
Stocks reached new highs with Nasdaq up double digits in April. The S&P 500 contract for April 15 sits at 100%
YES, up from 85% just 24 hours ago.
The April 15 S&P 500 market now fully priοΏ½...
BlackRockβs Bitcoin ETF has absorbed over 9,631 BTC in five days during US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian responses. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 31, 202...
Nikita Bier said aggregated data from Xs new trading pilot points to roughly $1 billion in global volume since Tuesday nights rollout. X said its new cashtags pilot has driven an estimated $1 billionοΏ½...
Spot crypto trading volumes fell to $1.27T in March, the lowest since September 2024. Bitcoin above $58,000 on April 14 remains at 100% YES.
US-Iran tensions have driven capital rotation toward oil οΏ½...
US President Trump claims Iran will halt backing for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 diplomatic meeting maοΏ½...
Iranβs Foreign Ministry says US statements donβt reflect negotiation realities, casting doubt on a peace deal by April 22. The likelihood of a peace agreement now sits at 28.5%
YES.
Market reac...
A senior US official announced that President Trumpβs ceasefire agreement includes a ban on Israeli offensive actions in Lebanon, while allowing self-defense against Hezbollah. Odds for Israel suspe...
The S&P 500 opening prediction for April 16 on Polymarket sits at 99.9%
YES, as the US stock market has rebounded to all-time highs amid strong earnings expectations.
Market reaction
A temporοΏ½...
