Articles by Estefano Gomez
The Lebanese army has accused Israel of violating a ceasefire with acts of aggression. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7%
YES, while the June 30 market sits at 96οΏ½...
President Donald Trump claimed the Iran war is βgoing along swimminglyβ and hinted at a potential end soon. The market for a US war declaration by April 30 sits at 1%
YES, unchanged from a day a...
Drift Protocol and Tether have announced a $150M collaboration to fund a user recovery pool and relaunch Drift Protocol after its April 1 exploit. The Polymarket contract on Solana exceeding $30 by AοΏ½...
Oil prices slipped after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, pushing the crude oil $90-by-end-of-June market lower as the geopolitical risk premium fades.
Market reacοΏ½...
Franceβs finance minister is urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the G7 ready to mitigate war-related economic disruptions. The odds of UK warships passing through the Strait by April...
Qatarβs talks with Pakistanβs PM aim to extend the US-Iran ceasefire. The ceasefire-by-April-22 market is at 23.5%
YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The market is responding to Paki...
Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Lauren Boebert have jointly demanded greater accountability for sexual misconduct in Congress following the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The PolοΏ½...
The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings struck a pessimistic note on the global economy, with the US recession by end of 2026 market sitting at 0%
YES on Polymarket.
Market reaction
The war involving οΏ½...
An Iranian military official claims missile readiness forced a halt to attacks on Lebanon. The Polymarket contract for Israeli military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 is at 100% YES.
Market reaοΏ½...
The US House rejected a resolution to limit President Trumpβs authority to wage war with Iran. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5%
YES, down slightly from...
