Articles by Estefano Gomez
The odds for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sit at 8.5%
, slightly up from 8% yesterday, as Washington and Tehran try to hold together a fragile ceasefire backed by Chinese diplomatic involvementοΏ½...
Bitcoin shot up over $1,000 within a minute on Binance amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The April Bitcoin price market reflects this volatility, though long-term prediction markets remain unaffected. TheοΏ½...
The cancellation of US envoy trips to Iran has driven the April 30 peace deal market down to 2%
YES, falling from 10% yesterday.
The diplomatic meeting market has also shifted. Odds of no US-Iran οΏ½...
Iranβs Speaker Bagher Qalibaf claims the US has run out of oil-related options. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sit at 2%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Qalibafβs comments frame Ira...
Home Front Command has issued new security guidelines in northern Israel, signaling rising tensions with Hezbollah. The Polymarket ceasefire-by-June-30 contract sits at 100%
YES, but this escalatioοΏ½...
The head of the Gas Exporting Countriesβ Forum warned that structural gas demand destruction could reshape the global LNG market. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 contract sits at 1.0%
YES,...
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5 in ChatGPT and Codex, and the Polymarket contract for GPT-5.5 by April 30, 2026 now sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 market reached 100%
YES, up from 98% jοΏ½...
Netanyahu has canceled the mass Meron celebration due to renewed fire from Lebanon, a decision that bears directly on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market, currently at 100%
YES.
MarοΏ½...
The total value hacked from crypto protocols in April has exceeded $623 million with four days left in the month. The Polymarket contract on whether another $100 million-plus hack occurs by the end oοΏ½...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed support for dollar swap lines amid the UAEβs potential funding request and said there are no plans to renew Iranian or Russian oil waivers. The market ...
