Articles by Estefano Gomez
The US House rejected a resolution to limit President Trump’s authority to wage war with Iran. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5%
YES, down slightly from...
US-Iran negotiations broke down in Islamabad, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 21.5%
YES, up slightly from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 m�...
Donald Trump criticized Italy after reports surfaced that Rome denied US military aircraft access to a Sicilian airbase linked to the Iran conflict. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1.2%
�...
A ceasefire has taken effect in Lebanon, though Hezbollah’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal remain tied to U.S.-Iran negotiations. The market for a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is at 94%
YES...
Pakistan announced that no date is set for the next round of US-Iran talks. The ceasefire by April 22 market is at 21.5%
YES.
## Market reaction
The lack of a scheduled second round has introduce�...
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced AI deployment to offset a 21.5% staffing cut, affecting crypto and prediction market oversight. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 20 is at 99.6%
YES.
The CFTC’s...
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Doha as part of efforts to mediate the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Iran’s uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 sits at 41.4%
YES, up from 25%...
The UK and France will host a summit to discuss setting up a naval force aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The market on whether the UK will send warships through the s�...
US import prices climbed 0.8% in March, driven largely by higher fuel prices, as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues to disrupt oil markets. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in A�...
Hezbollah launched a barrage hours after a ceasefire announcement, injuring several people in the Upper Galilee. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 99.6%
YES, down from 94% earlier today.
Ma�...
