Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting a US delegation. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 25 sits at 2%
YES.
Market reaction
Markets for US-Iran diplomati�...
Trump’s plan to seize Iran’s enriched uranium signals a hardline stance that makes an April 30 nuclear deal less likely. The odds of Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 sit at 5.8%
YES, ...
S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin calls a Strait of Hormuz crisis the largest energy disruption ever. Crude Oil all time high by April 30 sits at 1.1%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Yergin’s warning...
Thousands in Israel are choosing jail over military service, but prediction markets show little expectation this will topple the government. Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 6%
YES.
Market reactio�...
NBC reports U.S. bases in the Middle East sustained far more damage than publicly acknowledged. Military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
�...
Sanctioned ships are reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 63%
YES, down from 72% yesterday...
AMD’s market cap crossed $500 billion in after-hours trading, and the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 92.5%
YES, unchanged from yesterday.
...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir in Islamabad to discuss regional peace efforts. The Who Will Meet with Iran by April 30 market sits at 1.9%
YES, d...
Israel bombed Lebanon despite a ceasefire, citing Hezbollah rocket attacks. The odds of an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, are at 100%
YES, unchanged despite the news.
The strike un�...
An analyst claims Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 would be a “near-unprecedented” event. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders pricing ...
