Articles by Estefano Gomez
A Lebanese lawmaker has declared that no ceasefire extension will happen without Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, but οΏ½...
Christine Lagarde indicated the ECBβs readiness to act amid economic uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meet...
Gulf states are concerned that ongoing US-Iran talks in Islamabad may reinforce Iranβs grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump holding a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 have risen t...
With one day remaining before the April 21 deadline, the market on whether Trump will announce a US-Iran ceasefire breach is priced at 100%
YES, reflecting full trader certainty that the announcemeοΏ½...
The UK publicly named Russia as the aggressor at the UN and urged de-escalation in Ukraine. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, sit at 4%
YES, down from 6% a week ago.
Market rοΏ½...
An Israeli soldierβs destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
The ceasefi...
Iranβs top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for βno qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026β is at 2.8%
YES.
## Market reac...
Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 is at 8.5%
YES.
The blockade, enfοΏ½...
Trump told Bloomberg he wonβt lift the siege on Iran without an agreement. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 52.5%
YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago....
Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, and the ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped to 34.5%
YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market fell 21.5 pointsοΏ½...
