Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran plans to include the US-Israel war in school textbooks, and the odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 2%
YES, down from 5% yesterday, on the Israel-Iran peac�...
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon continue even after a US-brokered ceasefire extension. The Polymarket odds for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sit at 100%
YES, a price that �...
The firing of Navy Secretary John Phelan, announced through a Pentagon social media post, has drawn attention to the market for the next Trump Cabinet departure. The likelihood of a Cabinet exit befo�...
Israeli Channel 12 reports that the defense minister is shifting strategy toward economic disruption of Iran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 8.5%
YES, up from 8% yesterday and 6% a�...
SpaceX’s focus on AI in its IPO filing has pushed the odds of a timely public offering higher. The market for SpaceX going public by June 30, 2026, sits at 74%
YES, up from 71% yesterday.
Market ...
Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesn’t need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 6%
YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The retweet sen...
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50-3.75%, with the market for a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 10%
YES. CME FedWatch shows a 90%�...
Treasury yields remain steady amid waning optimism for a US-Iran ceasefire extension. The likelihood of extending the ceasefire by April 21 is at 0% YES, and the market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000�...
Trump’s endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100%
YES with 7 days remaining, even as Israel continues military strikes in southern Lebanon.
Market reaction
The Israel x Hezbol...
Day 56 of the extended ceasefire in the 2026 Iran War has produced no progress on diplomatic fronts. The probability of Donald Trump attending a meeting with Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2%
YES,�...
