Articles by Estefano Gomez
CENTCOMβs announcement that the US naval blockade focuses on Iranian ports rather than the Strait of Hormuz has shifted market expectations. The odds for Trump lifting the Strait blockade by May 31 ...
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for a second consecutive day on optimism that Middle East tensions might ease. The S&P 500 opening on April 16 market sits at 99.9%
YES followiοΏ½...
Sergey Shoigu warned Finland and the Baltic states against allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russia. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market sits at 5.9%
YES, down from 6%οΏ½...
Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed dozens just hours before a ceasefire was set to begin. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7%
YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The violοΏ½...
Circle faces a class action lawsuit over the Drift Protocol hack, and Solanaβs April 16 price market sits at 0.1%
YES for breaking $100.
The lawsuit, filed by Gibbs Mura, alleges Circle failed to...
The White House will allow federal agencies access to Anthropicβs Claude Mythos AI model, per POLITICO. The market on whether Anthropic will have the third best AI model by April 2026 sits at 40%
...
Trumpβs comments on NATOβs lack of support during the Israel-US strikes on Iran have pushed the likelihood of a US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 to 1.2%
YES, up slightly from 1% yesterday.
T...
Trump signaled Iranβs increased willingness to negotiate, pushing odds of a deal on oil sanctions in April to 36%
YES.
The market climbed from 34% yesterday and 28% a week ago. Trumpβs remarks ...
President Trump raised concerns over recent mysterious deaths of U.S. scientists, hinting at possible Iranian espionage links. The odds of a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2%οΏ½...
Israelβs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that President Trump remains committed to maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the May 31 lifting market to 82%
YES.
Market ...
