Articles by Estefano Gomez
Bitcoin hit $76,720, up 2%, after MicroStrategy’s $2.54B purchase and easing US-Iran tensions. The market for a Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April sits at 15%
YES.
Market reaction
MicroStrategy’s...
The U.S. military boarded the M/T Tifani, a tanker linked to Iran’s shadow fleet, in the Indo-Pacific. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 sits at 41%
YES.
Market reaction
The...
Iran’s 2026 uprising was quashed in two nights with a massive crackdown. Iranian regime fall by April 30 is at 1%
YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The crackdown didn’t budge the April 30 market, ...
Solana has processed more tokenized stock trading volume than all other blockchains combined since July 2025, and the Polymarket contract for Solana reaching $110 by April 18 reflects bullish positio�...
Bitcoin is trading above $75,000 as traders watch the U.S.-Iran ceasefire’s expiry and Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair. The market for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December...
Iranian security forces suppressed protests in Mashhad, and the Polymarket contract on Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 sits at 5.5%
YES, down from 6% a week ago.
The crackdown suggests Irani�...
Ukraine hit Russia’s Tuapse refinery with drones for the second time in a week, part of a broader campaign targeting rail and oil sites. On Polymarket, odds for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing by A...
Michael Saylor’s $2.54B Bitcoin purchase has lifted market sentiment, with the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin above $66K on April 21 priced at 99.9%
YES.
The buy came during heightened US-Iran t...
Trump’s ultimatum to Iran threatens severe consequences for rejecting nuclear talks. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 32.8%
YES, up from 22% a week ago.
Trad...
Tehran sent a negotiating team to Islamabad today. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 20.5%
, down from 16% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 22 peace deal market dropp�...
